“The international and domestic difficulties that US imperialism is facing must spur us on in our anti-war activities.”
By Steve Bell
US imperialism’s war against Iran is entering its thirteenth week and likely to be protracted. It is evident that the US government is facing failure. By locating the US policy in West Asia within the framework of its overall global position, we can best understand its belligerence.
Using the military to stem decline
The main reason for the ferocity of US foreign policy is that the US economy is in relative decline. In 1993, the US accounted for 20% of the World’s gross product, while China accounted for just 5%. By 2022, the US accounted for 15% of the world’s gross product, while China accounted for 18%.
Just over thirty years ago, the US was producing four times as much as China – yet today the Chinese economy is bigger.
According to the International Monetary Fund, using the most accurate comparisons in purchasing power parity, at the end of 2025 the Chinese economy is $10.4 trillion larger than the US economy. And the Chinese economy is growing more than twice as fast as the US – in 2025, China grew at 5% whilst the US grew by 2.1%.
Yet, the US remains the greatest military power in the world. It accounts for more than half of the world’s military spending. If we include its NATO allies’ spending, the US directs nearly two-thirds of the world’s military power.
Hence, today we are living in a period when US imperialism is trying to secure by military means that which it cannot secure by peaceful economic competition. So, the wars on Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and Venezuela – the sieges of Cuba and Yemen – the sanctions against dozens of countries in the Global South – all are expressions of the US’s attempt to wrench the world’s economy back into its control.
Failure in confronting China
Last year, in November, the US government published its National Security Strategy. The document defines the People’s Republic of China as its key opponent. But Trump has already received a serious setback at the hands of China. In April last year, Trump imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods imported to the US.
The Chinese government refused to be bullied. It imposed its own tariffs on US goods, diversified its trade away from the US, and restricted the export of rare earths vital to advanced manufacturing. Trump was forced to back down – US tariffs on China currently stand at 15%, the global minimum for US tariffs. Nor did Trump gain any concession from China in his recent summit with President Xi – no assistance was offered in pursuit of US goals against Iran.
The bipartisan drive against weaker states
Unable to make progress against China, the US government is attacking weaker states and major allies of China. The kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro and Congresswoman Celia Flores, and the seizure of Venezuela’s oil, is an attempt to both cut off a key supplier to China and to end a revolutionary social project in Latin America.
Equally, part of the rationale for the war on Iran is to cut off a major supplier of energy to China. The US is self-sufficient in oil. But it believes it can block China’s further development by controlling oil supplies from West Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere. Political analyst Brian Berletic calls this an attempt to construct a, quote, “global maritime oil blockade” against China.
The offensive against weaker states really began with the Biden administration after the US’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine failed with the collapse of the Kyiv government’s “Spring Offensive” in 2023. It became obvious that NATO could not integrate Ukraine into membership and that the NATO-backed forces could not defeat Russia. Biden’s administration could then not allow the US’s international reputation as a global power to be further damaged.
Thus, in late 2023, Biden removed all restraints on Netanyahu’s pursuit of genocide in Gaza. Gaza’s rubble is to be the future offered to any state in the Global South which continues to oppose US hegemony. The aggressive character of contemporary US policy is not an invention of Trump – it is the essential nature of US imperialism today.
Trump has continued Biden’s Palestine policy. His fantasy of a new Riviera delivered by the Board of Peace is aimed at securing a US-directed future for Gaza – one without an independent Palestinian state.
Peace without justice?
His Board of Peace has not met again since its initial meeting in February. The new Palestinian technocratic committee has not been allowed to enter Gaza, let alone run it.
On 15 May 2026, the US submitted a report from the Board of Peace to the UN Security Council. Predictably, it blames the Palestinians for its failures: “…the principal obstacle to full implementation remains Hamas’ refusal to accept verified decommissioning, relinquish coercive control, and permit a genuine civilian transition in Gaza.”
There is no reference to Israel’s seizure of territory beyond the Yellow Line of the peace agreement. There is no reference to the fact that the vast majority of ceasefire breaches are made by Israel. Nor any reference to Israel’s continuing hindrance of aid entry into Gaza. It even suggests Hamas is somehow responsible for the delay of entry into Gaza of the committee of Palestinian technocrats who are to act as the National Committee to Administer Gaza (NCAG) – even though entry into and out of Gaza is controlled by Israel.
It glosses up “progress” since the start of Phase 1 of the plan in October 2025. A glitter which disappears as we read: “… the restoration of basic services has yet to reach the vast majority of the population. The large-scale displacement of the population continues, with the majority living in tents or makeshift shelters and hundreds of thousands still lacking adequate shelter support. People in Gaza face acute water shortages and rapidly growing risks of infestation across overcrowded and insanitary displacement sites. Water, sanitation and hygiene materials, medicines and medical supplies, as well as cooking gas, are all in short supply. The health and education sectors remain decimated, and the cost of basic goods is out of reach for large segments of the population amidst approximately 80 per cent unemployment.”
We do not read that Israel is blocking the entry of construction materials and heavy machinery for rebuilding. We do not read that Israel is blocking the entry of tents because of the supposed “dual-use” character of aluminium tent poles. And we do not read that the shortage of the basic means of existence is because Israel is blocking or sieving their entry.
Notable is the absence of delivery of promised reconstruction funds. $17 billion was pledged at the initial Board meeting in February. Outside reports suggest that less than $1 billion has actually been received. Implying that Palestinians are to blame, the report states: “…demilitarisation is a basic condition for donor confidence, civilian safety, and lasting peace.” Perhaps Israel’s daily missile and bombing strikes are not reassuring to potential donors?
To make matters worse, the report introduces a policy change. A “Road Map” has been drawn up – inevitably without the agreement of, or reference to, the Palestinians. This places the complete disarmament of the Palestinians as a precondition for all other progress in Gaza – a policy previously championed by the Israeli government.
Palestinian analyst, Muhammad Shehada, explains: “Palestinians are asked to hand over all ‘heavy weapons’, including rifles & AK-47s, destroy all tunnels and militant infrastructure within 90 days BEFORE any Israel withdrawal or reconstruction, & trust that Israel would fulfil its side of the bargain AFTER Gaza becomes fully defenceless. ….. Israel gets to keep 18% of Gaza (the enclave’s most fertile agricultural lands) indefinitely, even after all weapons & militias in Gaza are gone.”
The internationalisation of Gaza under US direction is further dispossessing the Palestinians. Since the “ceasefire” started, 856 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and a further 2,463 have been injured up to May 20th. The genocide hasn’t ended, merely changed pace and form.
Spreading the Gaza method to Lebanon
Trump has supported an extension of the Gaza method to Lebanon. Without any opposition from the US government, the Israeli government is levelling villages and towns in Lebanon and destroying bridges to prevent civilian travel. This is an effort to establish a permanent occupation of south Lebanon and colonise it.
Since the start of the war in Iran, there has been a qualitative increase in Israeli attacks in Lebanon, averaging around 80 ground attacks or air strikes per day. There has been no discernible reduction since the ceasefire came into effect on April 16th.
According to an analysis made by The National, the Lebanese government news agency, on May 15, :” The bulk of recorded attacks since April 17 have concentrated on a band of villages along the southern border and inside what Israel now calls the “Yellow Line”, a 10-kilometres strip of Lebanese territory that the Israeli army says it does not intend to vacate “for the coming months and maybe years.”
The Lebanon’s Southern Council has identified a total of 27198 houses, 182 public buildings, 35 schools, and 9 historical locations that have been destroyed since the start of the Iran war. Displacement orders are issued regularly by the Israeli army. Israel has warned people not to return to 74 locations in southern Lebanon, according to the OCHA. Around 1.2 million people have been displaced. The destruction of medical services and frequent assassinations of first responders and journalists deepens the parallel with Gaza.
Since immediately after the start of the war on Iran, Israel has killed 3020 Lebanese citizens, and injured over 9000, up to 23rd May. This is during a “ceasefire” which the US government has just announced is extended for a further forty-five days.
Spreading the Gaza method to Iran
Equally, the way the US and Israel conducted the first round of the war on Iran utilised techniques which became systemised in Gaza. According to a study by Warcosts.org, up to the April 8 ceasefire, over 10,000 targets were struck. 70,000 residential units hit, 600 schools hit, 300 health facilities hit, and around 120 cultural/heritage sites hit. The Iranian government gives 3,468 deaths and 26,500 casualties.
The US government boasts, as does Israel, that their strikes are calibrated, using precision weapons. That being the case, it is evident that, like in Gaza, the aggressors paid no attention to the issue of civilian casualties. In the same way, the attack upon Iran’s social provision, such as medical facilities, universities and schools, must be deliberate and aiming to make social existence as difficult as possible for civilians.
In The Lancet, dated May 16 2016, in response to the destruction of a 106-year-old medical institution, we read: “The Pasteur Institute of Iran has been a pillar of the country’s public health system for more than a century. This institute has provided key public health infrastructure on multiple fronts, including vaccine development and production, national reference laboratory services, diagnostics, and genomic surveillance for infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, cholera, rabies, measles, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and viral hepatitis. The loss of the institute is not merely symbolic: it represents a real, immediate, and dangerous threat to public health.”
Attacks on such institutions are not accidental. As governments in Europe and North America have tolerated and aided the genocide in Gaza, it was inevitable that imperialism would generalise the example. In terms of historic comparisons, the bombing of German cities in World War II resulted in 50% civilian casualties. Gaza has resulted in 90% civilian casualties. Estimates for Operation Epic Fury on Iran suggest between 70-85% civilian casualties.
US hit once, hit twice by Iran
But the first month of the war against Iran has been a setback for US imperialism. The Trump administration assumed a swift collapse of the Islamic Republic through assassinations, a fearsome bombing campaign, and a manufactured uprising either by the population at large or by Iran’s national minorities. Despite terrible destruction and frightful casualty levels, there is absolutely no sign of Iranians giving Trump the “unconditional surrender” he has demanded.
For the US, victory in the war means regime change – for the Iranian people, victory is in surviving the war as an independent nation.
The choice facing Trump is between an unsatisfactory exit and a hazardous escalation. If he carries out his rhetorical threats to destroy Iran’s energy grid and desalination plants – or to land troops inside Iran, then an exit will be hard to find.
Any escalation will result in horrendous casualties, environmental catastrophe, and a recession in the world economy.
After the initial setback, and with the announcement of another ambiguous ceasefire, the US government tried to assert its domination by imposing a blockade upon Iranian ports by deploying across the Gulf of Oman. This was combined with a drive by the US navy into the Strait of Hormuz. This was given a title of typical Trumpian hype – “Operation Freedom.”
Within 24 hours, US navy vessels encountered missile fire and exited the Strait to a safer distance, having failed to protect merchant vessels in the process. Trump promptly announced a “pause” in Operation Freedom – claiming “mutual agreement” and progress in negotiations. That was, of course, drivel used to hide a major failure for the US government, its second in the war.
If the US has lost the first two rounds of the war, it has not yet lost the war. Admitting defeat would mean a huge loss of credibility in US standing across the world. It would be the biggest defeat in US foreign policy since the US war on Vietnam.
The crisis in US policy – a negotiated solution?
There is no clear way to resolve the crisis of US policy following Iran’s blows to its first two major tactics. At the time of writing, there is much speculation about an agreement which Trump stated on May 23:” …has been largely negotiated”, where “final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly.”
Across international sources, there seems to be a broad consensus on the substance of a Memorandum of Understanding, with some annexes. These include: a comprehensive cessation of hostilities, including Lebanon; the gradual release of Iran’s frozen assets; an end to the US blockade across the Gulf of Oman; and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz to traffic with joint Iranian/Omani oversight (differences on whether tolls will apply). After these are implemented, there is to follow a thirty-day period (with possible mutually agreed extension), to negotiate a final agreement on the long-term status of the Strait and the nuclear issue.
Trump indicated that this was discussed with a number of Gulf states, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan. Reports suggest that China cooperated with Pakistan to place some of the positions to the forefront. Of course, the EU and Britain have played no part in this, so far.
As a lasting agreement will require substantial, if not complete, sanctions relief, it is evident that such an agreement will represent a breakthrough for the Iranian people. Exactly because of that, we can expect the most belligerent forces in the US, Israel and elsewhere to try and prevent such an agreement.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmael Bagheri, stated on 23 May, that both sides were: “very far and very close to an agreement”. He continued: “…we have the experience of the American side’s contradictory statements and shifting positions. They have put forth conflicting stances several times. We cannot be completely certain that this approach will not change.”
The Iranians have had the experience of negotiations being used to distract from the immediacy of a US attack. Even if the negotiations proceed in the first phase, the crisis of perspective in the US imperialist class may result in a retreat from diplomacy and a further resort to military action.
The world’s population is paying for Trump’s war
Now, US imperialism’s continuing war on Iran is having an immense impact on the economy across the globe, and here in Britain.
Across the globe, it is the poorest countries of the Global South who are suffering the most. The UN Development Programme made an estimate in mid-April that 32 million people would be thrown back into poverty. This was assuming six weeks of major disruption. We are currently in the twelfth week of such disruption.
According to the World Bank, world fertiliser prices have surged by 44% since the start of the Iran war. This means higher food prices, less food available, and a negative impact on food security across the globe’s poorest areas.
This week, the Financial Times reported that nearly 80 countries have now introduced emergency measures to protect their economies. The longer the US government maintains its aggression, the more the world will pay the price.
Nor will there be a swift return to the pre-war energy market. Some of the damage to oil and gas installations from the war is so severe that it will be years before returning to pre-war levels. UAE Minister of Industry, Sultan Al Jaber, estimates that if there is an immediate end to the war, it will take four months to reach 80% of pre-war oil production. He suggests there may not be a full recovery until July 2027.
Britain’s population paying for Trump’s war
In Britain, the cost of Trump’s war is being immediately felt, and more evidence of this is available every day. Already, Britain is experiencing the sharpest rise in mortgage rates in the G7. The Consumer Price Index published last week found that prices have risen 1.4% in the two months since the start of the war. If this rate continues, that means cumulative price rises of 12% over the year. Bank of England policymakers forecast energy bills to rise by 16% by summer, and food prices to rise 7% by the end of the year.
On jobs, unemployment has crept upwards to 5 per cent, after having been falling since the start of the year. Employers cut 100,000 from their payrolls between March and April. This is the price already being paid by working people, and those on fixed income – a price extracted through the US government’s unprovoked war upon the Iranian people.
Stop the War, CND, and many others have already been highlighting the impact of the British government’s participation in Trump’s arms race for Europe. Welfare and social provision are under threat here and across Europe, to pay for continuing the war in Ukraine, and prepare for a later, more direct war with Russia.
Government spending should be prioritising productive investment in restoring our social services and infrastructure. Instead, it is being diverted into useless production of more missiles, drones, planes, and weapons of mass destruction. That is why we must continue to oppose the government’s ratcheting up of military spending towards a potential 5% of GDP, as demanded by Trump.
What needs to be registered is that the impact of the US war on Iran is being felt much faster than the gradual funding increase for the US/European war on Russia.
Most welcome is the recent Early Day Motion 5 before Parliament by Diane Abbott – supported by 18 other MPs, to date, including Jeremy Corbyn, as well as MPs from Labour, Greens, and Independents. It highlights the price increases from the war. It demands that the government end all support for the war, supports diplomacy, and presses for the US to lift its blockade in the Gulf of Oman to assist in reducing prices. The text is on the Stop the War website, and should be used to press MPs to sign.
British government complicity in Trump’s war on Iran
Our responsibilities as opponents of the war could not be more pressing. First, we must address the actual complicity of the British government in this war. The war is opposed by a majority of the population in Britain. The April Ipsos poll showed 65% against and 16% in favour. And the opposition is growing – in March it was 56% against the war and 21% in favour.
This opposition is forcing the Starmer government into rhetorical opposition to the war while practically supporting the US war effort. So, in launching Labour’s local election campaign, Starmer says, “This is not our war, and we are not going to be dragged into it.”
US B-52s have been launching their bombing runs from bases in Britain. Starmer is refusing to follow the lead of the Spanish government in denying access to Spanish bases. This must be our aim in Britain.
The British government has also had the RAF shoot down Iranian drones, involving missions across Cyprus, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, and the Emirates. This supposed quote, “defence of our allies” is actual participation in the war – on the side of the illegal actions of the US and Israel. This is continuing; last week, the government announced that RAF Typhoon jets will be equipped with new precision weapons across West Asia. These will, in practice, form part of the US/Israeli defensive systems in pursuit of a war of aggression.
Equally hypocritical are the efforts of the British government to construct an alliance of naval and air forces to quote “secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.” This all takes place alongside US efforts to do the same thing. The British government absolutely refuses to condemn the US blockade of Iranian ports – the very blockade that is preventing shipping from moving through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. Again, an illustration of how the British government is continually supporting the US war effort whilst denying that it supports the war. Starmer has not been dragged into the war. He has sidled into it through the shadows of public deceit.
Despite the public opposition, we have not yet seen the large mobilisations against the war that we saw in Iraq or in Palestine recently. This is because the Iranian people and the Islamic Republic have been systematically demonised for nearly five decades by politicians and the media. Nor has Iranian social media on the war yet achieved the cut through that Palestinians in Gaza achieved, although the satirical Lego videos have hit home.
Growing opposition in the US
However, we must grasp the dynamic of war. Besides the horrors, the US escalation will also animate substantial parts of the population towards open engagement in the anti-war movement.
In the US, the war is becoming increasingly unpopular. A poll published on May 19th found 52% of US citizens said it had not been worthwhile for the US to take military action in Iran, compared to 23% who supported military action.
The same poll found that two-thirds said rising gas prices had affected their household budget. The Financial Times reported this week that US consumers, in a country self-sufficient in oil, have spent an extra $40 billion on fuel – $316 per household. US consumer confidence has collapsed to its lowest level since recording began in the 1950’s.
This economic impact and the obvious floundering of the US offensive are strengthening US opposition. Last week, the US Senate voted by 50 votes to 47 to limit Trump’s ability to wage war on Iran without Congressional approval. Following that vote, the House of Representatives session was abruptly cancelled after it became clear that the Republicans did not have sufficient votes to defeat the same resolution passed by the Senate. There is serious pressure building up as the Republican Party faces a hit in the mid-term elections.
The international and domestic difficulties that US imperialism is facing must spur us on in our anti-war activities.
Immediately, the anti-war movement needs to build the International Anti-War Conference on June 20th in London. There is an impressive list of international and national speakers, with 1,500 already registered to attend from here and across Europe. But with the very real threat of renewed strikes against Iran and a growing momentum for military action against Cuba, it is vital to keep building the anti-imperialist and anti-war movement.
- Steve Bell is Treasurer of the Stop the War Coalition- you can follow him on Twitter/X.
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