“A win for Bolsonaro’s son would not only spell disaster for Brazil and Latin America, but for the rest of the world.”
By Julia Felmanas, Member of PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores / Brazilian Workers’ Party) London Nucleus.
The world is going through one of the most difficult periods in decades, one in which the USA’s hegemony is being threatened. Whether this will come to pass, only the future will tell. However, President Trump is very aware of his country’s loss of power and is attacking like he was a wounded animal.
The return to a “neo-Monroe Doctrine” or “Donroe Doctrine”, in which Trump’s administration sees the whole of the Western Hemisphere as the USA’s backyard serves a number of purposes, both ideologically and nationalistically.
First, it is a show of strength and a way of amassing as much territory to re-establish its power. Second, Latin America is a source of extremely valuable resources for the economies of the 21st century. Third, by co-opting Latin American nations, the USA can see less competition in terms of its products and services. Fourth, the USA can yield its power to push American based technology, AI and Financial platforms, maintaining the dollar as the main world currency by pure imposition or ensuring non-regulation or deregulation. Finally, the USA hopes to win back lost ground to China which has invested heavily in the region.
To these reasons we could add a few personal motives such as Trump’s arrogance and megalomania and the US State Department’s Secretary, Marco Rubio’s, unresolved psychological issues with his Latin American identity.
Most of Latin America has already turned right. Most notably, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. But we cannot rule out blatant interference in the Honduras election and it is also important to mention Keiko Fujimori’s win in Peru. Furthermore, the kidnapping of Maduro in Venezuela in an open attack to its sovereignty and wealth, whilst Cuba remains under permanent sanctions and is threatened with military interference.
However, two countries stand in the way of the USA in fulfilling its wish to impose the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”: Mexico and Brazil.
The Brazilian elections provide the perfect opportunity for the USA to ‘have’ Brazil without spilling blood. Indeed, with the help of Brazilians themselves.
A win for Bolsonaro’s son, Flávio, in Brazil would mean a huge victory for Trump and the far right that would have immense implications not only in Latin America, but across the world. Whilst Lula’s victory would mean the opportunity to fight back, resistance and a remain a bastion in the struggle for multilateralism.
Why is Brazil so important?
First of all, simply because of what Brazil is: the fifth largest country in geographical terms, 7th most populous in the world and 8th in term of GDP, depending how you count it. It has large reserves of minerals: critical minerals, rare earths, iron ore, oil and others. It is an agricultural powerhouse on which the USA both depends on (coffee, orange juice, meat, wood, etc.) and competes with (meat, cotton, soya, wood, etc).
It has the largest freshwater reserves in the world, the largest biodiversity, the cleanest electricity mix and a huge potential for clean, renewable energy. It has a complex, well-developed system in terms of technology, finances and markets and the size of its population means that no internationally-minded company can ignore it.
The USA used to be Brazil’s main market. No longer. China is now its principal trading partner, and Brazil has been diversifying its trade, so that it is less reliant on the USA in comparison to a few decades ago.
Then there is Lula’s and the Brazil’s Foreign Office position on geopolitical matters, which does not please current American foreign policy. Brazil is a strong voice for multilateralism, south-south relations and peace. It is also a founding member of BRICS which have increased in size and now counts with 11 full members and 10 partner countries. BRICS is an alternative system that threatens US hegemony, with a potential for debanking the dollar from being the main world currency.
Furthermore, Brazil does not align with the USA and Europe in relation to the main current global conflicts: It is clear with regard to its position on the genocidal attacks of Israel in Palestinian territory. It has proclaimed the need to protect both Cuba’s and Venezuela’s sovereignty. It diverges on solutions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the war with Iran and its position towards China, as well as the position of Latin-America and the Caribbean in the world.
Elections take place on 4th October and there is already evidence of American interference. At the end of August, the Brazilian intelligence services sent a report to the Brazilian government that was later leaked, where it pointed to the escalation of economic, political and diplomatic pressure from the USA and that this had reached critical levels.
It highlighted already well-known cases of pressure and interference such as the increase in tariffs – of up to 50% in some cases – on Brazilian goods. Sanctions on individuals and companies. Including members of the Supreme Court and government officials. Diplomatic restrictions, such as revoking the visa of Brazil’s Ambassador in Washington. Furthermore, as well as pressuring Brazil to get rid of its free to use payment platform PIX. It has also classified organised crime gangs such as PCC and PV as terrorist organisations, the implications of which are that the Americans can militarily invade Brazil, if they so wish, under the pretext that it would be fighting terrorist organisations.
The intelligence agency report particularly highlights Rubio’s potential for interference in the elections in favour of the Bolsonaros.
However, the USA is not alone, the Brazilian mainstream media’s dislike for Lula is notorious, reflecting Brazilian elite’s vicious anti Workers’ Party (PT) stance. To cap it all, the Superior Electoral Courts that have legal oversight for the elections are in the hands of the two Justices chosen by Bolsonaro. There are many signs that they are not being impartial in their decisions.
However, nothing beats the Bolsonaro’s family disdain for their own country. Flavio Bolsonaro’s brother, Eduardo, left Brazil and his position as Federal Deputy to live in the USA so as to lobby the American government. As well as facilitating a number of meetings with Trump and other members of the US government for his brother, Eduardo has advocated for tariffs against Brazil, has cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic ballot boxes, asked for further sanctions for Supreme justices and praised the USA’s governments’ reclassification of organised crime.
Furthermore, Brazil does not align with the USA and Europe in relation to the main current global conflicts: It is clear with regard to its position on the genocidal attacks of Israel in Palestinian territory. It has proclaimed the need to protect both Cuba’s and Venezuela’s sovereignty. It diverges on solutions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the war with Iran and its position towards China, as well as the position of Latin-America and the Caribbean in the world.
But perhaps most disturbing, is the fact that Marco Rubio wrote in a letter that Flavio Bolsonaro stated that should he win, his transition team would be at the service of the USA government.
In addition, there is social media. As well as permitting disinformation, misinformation and spreading of fake news, a number of accounts, including Lula’s, have been temporarily blocked, most notably by Meta (Facebook and Instagram), a few days before the elections. A win for Bolsonaro is clearly in their interest. Besides ideological affinity, Lula and the Brazilian establishment have shown willingness to regulate AI and tech in general, as well as implementing initiatives to produce national platforms and content.
Finally, there are signs that the Rockbridge network, a far-right organisation co-founded by J.D. Vance, has been meddling in the elections. Its subsidiary, Rockbridge Brazil, is apparently supporting Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. The situation is so worrisome that 31 American congressmen wrote to Rubio expressing their concern.
Lula used his speech at the UN to warn about what could come to pass during the election. When Lula won in 2022, Biden was in power. The American former president was well aware that a Bolsonaro win would have bolstered Trump and proceeded to immediately recognise the fairness of Brazil’s election.
Now, we already see signs that the American administration may not recognise the elections if Lula wins. A win for Bolsonaro’s son would not only spell disaster for Brazil and Latin America, but for the rest of the world.
In Brazil, those most likely to suffer from a Flávio Bolsonaro win are the most vulnerable: the poor, the black and indigenous populations, women, lgbt+ communities and minorities in general. But perhaps what is most important is something I have not mentioned yet: this summer we have seen the consequences of reaching environmental limits. Because of the vast Amazon territory, the far right in power in Brazil would mean that any hope the world has of attempting to remain within liveable limits is lost forever.
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