“A win for Bolsonaro’s son will endanger the Amazon rainforest at a critical time, which no amount of belated concern afterwards can correct.”
By Julia Felmanas
Back in 2014, just before President Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s successor, took office for the second time, the Car Wash Operation held Brazil hostage. It alleged huge corruption linking Brazil’s state oil company, Petrobrás, to the country’s private and (at the time) powerful civil construction sector and the government. After twelve years of uninterrupted PT (Workers’ Party) governments focused on the social, consolidating Brazil’s welfare state, the population’s attention was forcibly moved to see a State that seemed to be mired in corruption. Brazilians nationalised this: local politics and corruption go hand in hand, the saying goes.
But Car Wash led to a series of grotesque events that shocked Brazil and part of an unsuspecting world. First, the impeachment of Lula’s successor and her replacement by her Vice-President, Temer, who immediately proceeded to dismantle the welfare state consolidated by the PT, including Brazil’s Labour and Union laws, praised across the world.
The Car Wash went on to imprison Lula, and instead of opening the way to the economically liberal right as expected, the PSDB, its main political iteration, imploded and the far right took power in the shape of Jair Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro’s antics were considerably covered by the international media. I will just recall here that the judge who imprisoned Lula and oversaw the Car Wash Operation, Sérgio Moro, became Bolsonaro’s Justice Minister; the rolling back of environmental laws and the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, together with attacks on human rights defenders, environmentalists, indigenous and black activists and, finally, the disastrous management of COVID-19 that led to over 700,000 deaths.
Also well known is that Lula’s conviction was quashed and that he went on to narrowly win the 2022 elections. Less well known was that Car Wash was proven to be a sham. A series of documents and conversations between judge Moro and prosecutors were leaked, which helped to advance the case already being made by human rights lawyers who called out errors in the conduct of the Car Wash operation. Leaked also were documents showing the involvement of the US.
Since then, however, the world is almost unrecognisable. The authoritarian, fascist right-wing surged everywhere, bringing to power characters such as Milei in Argentina and Trump in the USA, just to name a couple. However, perhaps more importantly, even when not in power, far-right ideals and values have been normalised and embraced everywhere, including by mainstream media and politicians. Suffice to mention the rise of Reform in the UK and, more specifically, the normalisation of attacks on migrants and ethnic minorities.
So, back to Brazil. Elections in October this year will see Lula running for Office once again against Jair Bolsonaro’s son, Flávio, as his main rival. After four years of Bolsonaro, in 2022, Lula managed to bring together a broad coalition that went from centre-right to left. These past four years have not been easy. Despite Lula being in power and Bolsonaro in jail (because of an attempted Coup d’Etat on 8th January 2022), Congress remained in the hands of the far-right and clientelist right. A hardcore 20-30% of the population have remained faithful to Bolsonaro, and Trump in power has meant that any progress has been achieved with much skill and hard work.
Just to mention a few successes: the Lula government has seen growth (8.3% to 2026), record low unemployment (6%), including a reduction in informal employment, at its lowest level since 2020, whilst consistently increasing the minimum salary above inflation; a reduction in deforestation (36% in the Amazon this year and a reduction in all other biomes) and a change in taxation where the threshold limits for payments are higher (approximately 80% of the population do not pay income tax) and seen some progress in terms of taxing the rich (progressive taxation up to 10%), though there is still a long way to go.
Many may think that Lula is too old and has been in power for too long. I would encourage them to look at the Brazilian left. They are united under Lula as never before: from the soft centre-left PDT or PSB to the more radical PSOL, not forgetting a number of centrists unsure before Bolsonaro and who are firmly behind Lula now, such as Vice-President Alckmin, once one of Lula’s main rivals or Simone Tebet, senators Soraya Thronicke and Eliziane Gama, who are now running with Lula, or even journalist Eliane Cantanhêde, a consistent critic of Lula, who refuses to support the Bolsonaro family. They all know that only a politician with Lula’s clout can defeat the far-right.
Most importantly, the Brazilian left is keenly aware that the threat is worldwide. In 2018, Bolsonaro’s win was dismissed as an eccentric event only possible in Brazil. With the benefit of hindsight, analysts are all aware that the hymn sheet is the same everywhere: attacks to science – be it the environment or health; to human rights – harsher sentences to domestic criminals, leaving the ECHR or direct attacks to the ICC and turning a blind eye to the genocide in Gaza; deregulation or defending lack of regulation – be it for the big techs or big wealth.
Global north journalists now, as they did in 2015-16 with Dilma’s impeachment or in 2018 covering Bolsonaro’s election, can be aloof and come up with the same tiresome mantras about corruption or fiscal policies, repeating the same narratives that local Brazilian mainstream media repeat. But I would suggest that what happens in this Brazilian election should be looked at from the point of view of geopolitics.
Trump physically interfered in Venezuela and may have influenced elections in the continent, such as the parliamentary elections in Argentina and presidential elections in Honduras and Colombia. Only two countries stand in the way of him achieving his so-called Donroe Doctrine, fully explicit in a video by the Department of State: Mexico and Brazil.
Quite apart from Latin American geopolitics, Brazil’s weight merits a little more reflection. First of all, because as we have seen, Brazilian politics has been, in the last few years, signalling trends. Be they to the left or to the right. A win for the left in Brazil can help bolster the left in other parts of the world. This is very much at play at present. Secondly, Brazil is an economic powerhouse. Its agriculture feeds the world. Its minerals make the world run. It ranks 10th in terms of nominal GDP. Politically, unlike the UK, Lula has been somewhat successful in standing up against Trump’s tariffs by further expanding its markets, and has been vociferous in supporting peace, be it in regard to Iran and the Ukraine, or the stopping of the genocide in Gaza and other issues. A left-leaning Brazil can boost support for wealth taxes and the regulation of big tech. It can strengthen much-needed multipolarity, as well as draw attention to the voices of the south which tend to be muted or forgotten in the Global North.
Furthermore, Brazil has a clean energy mix (80% hydropower or renewable) and is one of the largest sources of rare earths outside China, something Trump is keenly aware of. This means that Brazil is an important player in terms of the present, just, green transition the world needs.
All this to say that what happens this year in Brazil matters. Not just for Brazil, or for Latin America, but for the world. It is about time that, journalistically, Brazil is given the real relevance it has. Global north journalism towards Brazil is often aloof, arrogant and ignorant. Such an attitude not only misinforms. It can be dangerous: a win for Bolsonaro’s son will endanger the Amazon rainforest at a critical time, which no amount of belated concern afterwards can correct.
- Julia Felmanas is a member of the Brazilian Workers’ Party.
- The ¡Viva la solidaridad! No to Trump’s War on Latin America – LIVERPOOL event will be on Sunday, September 27 at 1pm. You can register to attend here.
- Find out more about Lula and Brazil from the Brazil Solidarity Initiative, who are now regularly updating again on Facebook and Twitter/X.
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