“Organised labour, social movements and the pro-peace lobby know a return to hard-right governance would reverse the progress made under Petro.”
By Justice for Colombia
On Sunday 31 May, Colombians headed to the polls in one of the most pivotal elections of the country’s modern era.
They are faced with a stark contrast.
On the left, and with a significant polling lead, progressive senator Iván Cepeda supports the process of change instigated under outgoing president Gustavo Petro with an agenda built around peace, environment and social investment. Cepeda is representing the same Historic Pact Party as Petro did, running alongside indigenous senator and human rights activist Aida Quilcué as vice-president.
Their two main challengers come from the hard right: Paloma Valencia of the oligarchy’s Democratic Centre party, which stands on the old platform of former president Álvaro Uribe, and the media-fixated ‘Trumpist’ Abelardo De La Espriella, who has been a lawyer for many members of Colombia’s criminal organisations. Both candidates would end peace dialogues with armed groups and promise to escalate armed confrontation, increase funding to the military, divert public resources to the private sector, expand resource extraction and return Colombia firmly into the orbit of Trump’s White House.
Having been elected to Congress in 2010 and to the Senate four years later, Cepeda is a long-time associate of Justice for Colombia. He has met with several JFC delegations of British and Irish trade unionists and politicians, and in 2015 visited the two countries with JFC to promote peace dialogues involving the FARC guerrillas. From the Senate, he has worked to expose links between politicians and paramilitary groups, leading to investigations of more than 200 state officials in what was known as the ‘parapolitics’ scandal. He is best known for his campaigning on behalf of conflict victims and was a founder of the MOVICE national victims’ movement, which helped to get him elected in 2010. His father, Senator Manuel Cepeda, was assassinated by far-right paramilitaries in 1994.
Although Cepeda is the election favourite, his victory is not assured. As most Colombian elections go to a second round, conservative support – currently divided – will tend to go to the remaining right-wing candidate. Theoretically, this could provide either Valencia or De La Espriella with enough votes to take the presidency. Cepeda’s campaign is therefore targeting a first-round victory to avoid a runoff. It is worth noting that the Colombian right has deep-seated conflicts that may affect its ability to unite. For example, Petro’s election in 2022 followed a second round that saw him earn over two million votes more than his conservative opponent, who failed to benefit enough from other right-wing challengers dropping out of the race.
As president, Cepeda has promised to improve Colombians’ living conditions and access to essential services through redistribution. This is particularly urgent in the countryside, where the long-term absence of the state has left many rural communities lacking clinics, electricity, roads or even clean water. Governments have too often prioritised resource extraction by foreign corporations over the basic needs of the population. Chronic rural underdevelopment has been a root cause of conflict, as recognised by the Truth Commission Report, and as reflected in the 2016 peace agreement’s prioritisation of infrastructural investment in conflict zones.
In the past two years, violence has escalated in Colombia after a period of decline due to the signing of the peace agreement and President Petro’s opening of negotiations with armed groups, a policy defined as Total Peace. Recent incidents include the bombing last month of a bus that killed 25 civilians in Cauca, which some analysts consider an attempt to disrupt elections or to benefit right-wing narratives around security. Like Cauca, Catatumbo in northeast Colombia is witnessing intense conflict, with a devastating impact on local communities. Advancing peacebuilding strategies will be another priority for the next government.
There are also significant concerns in foreign policy. Tensions between the US and Colombia, which are historic allies, have increased since Donald Trump’s re-election. President Petro has been a major critic of US policy, denouncing the mistreatment of Colombian deportees, the extrajudicial killings of fishermen in the Caribbean and Pacific, and the US arming of Israel’s assault on Gaza. This saw Trump on several occasions blast President Petro with insults and false accusations, labelling him a ‘crazy old man’ and implying involvement in drug trafficking. Shortly after the abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and first lady Cilia Flores, Trump said military action against Colombia ‘sounds good to me’. The hostile rhetoric has abated since a February meeting between the two leaders, yet there are legitimate fears of possible US intervention in the event of a Cepeda win.
Indeed, in the latest indication of potential US meddling, Republican senator Bernie Moreno – currently in Colombia on a US embassy-organised visit – said that votes made in conflict zones, where the Historic Pact is strong, should be disqualified (a JFC delegation is also currently in the country to support the electoral process). Furthermore, in March, a US court opened an investigation into President Petro relating to drug trafficking, a process designed to pressure Colombia’s leader and potentially justify his persecution using similar tactics as against Maduro. The US has set a precedent by recently intervening in elections in Honduras and Argentina, as much of Latin America has swung back under Washington’s influence following a period of leftist dominance in the region. A Cepeda victory is unlikely to be welcomed in the halls of US power.
However, as Cepeda’s final electoral rallies and his polling figures show, many Colombians wish to continue along the path of peace and resolution of structural problems laid out by the Historic Pact. Organised labour, social movements and the pro-peace lobby know a return to hard-right governance would reverse the progress made under Petro and reimpose hardline militaristic and neoliberal policies upon the population. In the contest to shape Colombia’s future, a great deal is at stake.
- This article was originally published by Justice for Colombia on 29 May 2026.
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