“Labour faces not just a really bad set of election results but an existentially alarming one.”
By Michael Calderbank
Like watching a car crash in slow motion, we can all see what’s about to happen, but, at this point, there’s nothing the Labour Party can do to avert disaster. What matters now is how it responds, and what can be salvaged from the wreckage.
If the opinion polls are remotely accurate, Labour faces not just a really bad set of election results but an existentially alarming one. Thousands of hard-working and dedicated local councillors – together with AMs, MSPs and directly-elected mayors – are left fearing (where not directly expecting) the worst, often through no fault of their own.
Yes, mid-term elections typically see the governing party lose seats – that much is ‘baked in’. But the prospect of Labour losing power in the Welsh Senedd for the first time ever, slumping to defeat again in Scotland, losing control of heartland boroughs in London to the Greens and Sunderland to Reform, would amount to something unprecedented.
But how should the results be analysed, and what should we conclude needs to be done? The media are likely to shift their attention over the weekend directly onto a soap opera of personalities – whether Wes has the numbers to mount a challenge, and whether this would force Angie’s hand, or is there time for Andy to make it back to Westminster before a contest opens up, etcetera, etcetera.
But the danger here is that no time is spent understanding the kind of alternative approach we need, and what kind of policies are capable of rebuilding a broad enough coalition capable of seeing off the danger of the populist far right.
On the Monday evening after the elections – 11th May, 6.30 – 7.30 – Arise and the Trade Union Coordinating Group will be hosting an online discussion asking these questions. Left MPs, including John McDonnell and Richard Burgon, will be joined by trade union leaders Fran Heathcote (PCS) and Daniel Kebede (NEU) to think through the significance of what has happened and the political lessons for activists on the left.
- You can register for the 11 May Arise and TUCG meeting here.
- Michael Calderbank is the Trade Union Liaison Officer of Tottenham CLP and works for Solidarity Consulting. You can follow him on Twitter/X.
- This article was originally published by Labour Hub on 6 June 2026.
- If you support Labour Outlook’s work amplifying the voices of left movements and struggles here and internationally, please consider becoming a supporter on Patreon.
