“With Starmer’s leadership beyond repair, the race has already begun. Don’t turn away, or you might miss something.”
Following Andy Burnham’s intervention on the Government’s deeply unpopular first year, Ben Liao, for our Red Weekly Column, analyses what’s brewing in the future battle for the Labour leadership.
Speaking at a meeting of the soft-left think tank/faction Compass at the end of May, Andy Burnham said Labour should produce a “substantially new offer for the public”. Burnham expressed his belief that the current government is not doing enough to present an alternative and criticised it for aping the rhetoric of the right.
This notable intervention has been prompted by the immense unpopularity of Starmer and the Labour Party in general. It does appear that the soft-left is beginning to resist the party’s current direction. How it took them so long to come around is remarkable, after years of lies and betrayal – but nonetheless welcome.
It is no secret that Burnham would like to lead the party. His rehabilitation as some sort of radical figure began during the COVID-19 pandemic and has been carefully nurtured since then.
It must be noted that this is not the first time Burnham has been presented as a left alternative. Before the transformational entry of Jeremy Corbyn into the 2015 leadership contest, Burnham was arguably the candidate left-wingers in the party could have voted for. This façade quickly faded after Corbyn’s entry, with Burnham promptly tacking to the right.
It should be remembered that he was once a critic of abstaining on the appalling Welfare Reform and Work Bill 2015, only to fall into line and abstain himself when it mattered. Anyone who thinks he could be the one to correct course should remember Starmer’s ten pledges and what became of those. Politicians like this often promise the world – and most let you down.
That said, the intervention is an interesting one. Compass also works with Nadia Whittome and Clive Lewis, representing a split in strategy amongst the so-called hard-left of the party. Some of these MPs believe that closer collaboration – and indeed, bolstering the institutions of the soft-left, as we can see in this case – is the best course of action.
A lack of unified strategy amongst the hard-left to retain left members has done huge damage, and the collapse over the last few years has been astounding. And this is aside from the difficulties of a socialist even getting onto the ballot in the first place.
The main manoeuvring is taking place within the soft-left and its competition with the right of the party. Parliamentary insiders say that Angela Rayner, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting are all beginning to position themselves for a leadership bid. These manoeuvres – particularly in Rayner’s case – could be fuelling ongoing power struggles with Rachel Reeves.
A contest between Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham, should it come to pass, would be an intriguing one. Both are attempting to court the same power base: the soft-left, which almost certainly makes up the largest section of the individual membership. These members, while not especially radical, are likely to support policies such as public ownership of rail, water and energy, as well as wealth taxes over austerity measures. Starmer understood this and recognised the faction’s role as frequent kingmakers – hence why he ran on a platform of continuity with Corbyn and McDonnell’s economic agenda.
It would be surprising if both Burnham and Rayner did not follow a similar strategy when the time comes – especially if the Starmer project is humiliated at the ballot box, as current polling suggests is possible.
For Rayner, her service in the Starmer government could make persuading people of her left-wing credentials more difficult. It is, of course, trickier to present yourself as the agent of change when you’ve been part of the establishment. Further complicating matters is her campaign as a more left-wing candidate alongside Rebecca Long-Bailey during the 2020 deputy leadership election. We can see how well that held up — those convictions are now nowhere to be seen.
Burnham has a slightly easier time of it. A technical outsider with a large personal platform, he has much more room to present himself as an insurgent. He does have a longer record that can be scrutinised, but people often have short memories in politics. He does, however, face the issue of not currently being a sitting MP.
A Wes Streeting leadership bid could be cut short by the loss of his seat, which is currently held by a wafer-thin majority of 528. If he does run, he would undoubtedly attract substantial support from members on the right of the party. Whether he could effectively compete for votes from the soft-left – and what remains of the hard-left – when faced with Burnham or Rayner more questionable. He would, however, likely enjoy vast support from party establishment figures
Bridget Phillipson remains something of a dark horse, and with only rumours at this stage, it is more difficult to predict her intentions or strategy
The growing influence of Blue Labour could also play a significant role. This socially conservative faction – whose founder is close to JD Vance and was called a ‘hero’ by Steve Bannon – has been getting ever closer to the current leadership and is adding more MPs to its ranks. Sadly, despite the reactionary, racist, anti-multicultural nature of this reprehensible group, it could yet produce a challenger.
Dan Carden MP, the former Socialist Campaign Group member, is the chair of its parliamentary caucus. It would be a surprise for Carden to stand, but he could receive support from other MPs seeking a similar agenda. Thankfully, broad support among party members seems unlikely.
At this point, all we know for certain is that the games have begun – a remarkable thing to say less than a year into a Labour government with such a gigantic majority. An internal soft-left power struggle could break out between Rayner and Burnham as the next leadership election draws closer. In my opinion, the winner of that battle is the most likely person to succeed Starmer.
However, anything can happen in a few years in politics. With Starmer’s leadership beyond repair, the race has already begun. Don’t turn away, or you might miss something.
- The Red Weekly Column will appear each Monday on Labour Outlook from one of our regular socialist contributors.
- Ben Liao is a socialist and anti-racist activist. You can follow him on Twitter/X.
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