“If the Labour leadership blocks debate we may well suffer the same fate as the American Democrats with all the horrendous outcomes that could create.”
By Ian Lavery MP
I, like many of you, woke up on the morning of the 6th November 2024 to hear the disturbing news that Donald Trump had won the election to become the next President of the United States of America and immediately felt unease regarding the future not only for the UK but for our entire planet. The prospects for the world’s working class people and the Earth’s climate became much more precarious over night.
To be truthful, I was not surprised at the outcome and felt that the Kamala Harris campaign had not offered working class people enough clear cut policy commitments to convince them that their lives would improve if she were to be President. Although the Biden regime to which Harris was attached had spent vast amounts to achieve economic growth through investments in new Green industries and infrastructure improvements, the benefits would not be experienced in daily lives until some time in the future. Ordinary American workers were still suffering from the effects of recent inflation and falling living standards. The here and now affected their voting behaviour more than vague promises of better times to come.
As others have pointed out previously in Labour Outlook, studies have shown that whilst the wealth of those at the top has increased incredibly, from 1979 until 2018 the median wage in the USA had hardly changed. After that period American workers then had to endure the financial uncertainties of the Covid pandemic and the cost of living crisis following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It was therefore not a shock that they were more attracted to Trump’s promises of immediate relief. Out of desperation they were drawn to populist, simplistic and fictitious arguments, and chose to ignore Trump’s obvious personal defects.
Although, as I said in my last contribution to Labour Outlook, there were some very positive aspects in Rachel Reeves’ Budget, I am concerned that it to a great extent follows the Biden-Harris game plan, but with only allocating a fraction proportionately of the investments the Democrats were funding. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts that economic growth stemming from the Budget will not be felt within the next five years. Although the OBS is so wedded to neo-liberal orthodoxy that its forecasts may be too negative, very few economists foresee a large upturn in the UK’s economic fortunes in the near future and if Trump imposes tariffs on trade economic growth could become much harder.
Although much can change before the next General Election, it appears that Labour is on the same electoral path as the US Democrats and, indeed, many Centrist European regimes before them, all of which led eventually to success for the populist hard Right. In the UK, Labour’s decline could also resurrect the fortunes of Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, leading to more uncertainty. Labour in its first few months of power has become unpopular very quickly and without a change of direction it may well remain so. Tinkering with the status quo is no longer an option.
The Labour Leadership must accept that new ideas and policies are needed and they must start listening to those on the Left of the Party before it is too late. If it does so I and other will of course enter the debate in a comradely manner. I also call upon those on the Left to re-engage with the Labour Party and to become part of this debate.
I wholeheartedly accept that the Left have many legitimate grievances arising from the factional conduct of some within the leadership. Unfair parliamentary selections and abandoned policy commitments, etc., cause understandable negativity, but the dangers of the Far Right advancing at the next General Election are so acute that all sections of the Party must move on and look for ways of working together to avoid potential disasters. Some dream of a Left alternative movement taking over from Labour, but with the current electoral system I do not think that is realistic and may only help the Right by splitting the progressive vote. For those who pin their hopes on PR delivering salvation for the Left, I would point out that generally the insurgent Left parties in European countries with PR systems have not flourished, whilst the Far Right has gained. Although there can be no guarantees, I consider our best option is to try to persuade Labour to try a different, more socialist approach.
It is time for the Labour leadership to listen to the well argued pleas for such things as a Wealth Tax and an urgent campaign against child poverty; to keep an open mind towards those who say that all utilities should eventually be brought back into public control based on more democratic models than old style centralised nationalisation; and to look into public sector solutions such as the community wealth building policies developed in Preston and elsewhere instead turning to the private sector that in the end only cares about profits.
If we have free and open debates along these lines in the Labour Party we may be able to agree on policies that will convince working class voters that we do care and that their lives will improve. If the Labour leadership blocks such debate we may well suffer the same fate as the American Democrats with all the horrendous outcomes that could create. The Left too has to take part in this process as a failure to do so could be more than tragic. If rigid factional mindsets in the face of such dangers leads to failure, then both sides will have to shoulder some of the blame.
- Ian Lavery is the MP for Blyth & Ashington, you can follow him on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter/X.
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