‘The raging fires in the Middle East are fast becoming an inferno.’
UN Secretary-General António Guterres
UN Security Council, Emergency Session on the Middle East, 2 October 2024
By Carol Turner
Israeli bombs pound Beirut on a daily basis while Hezbollah rockets shower down on Israel’s third largest city, Haifa in the north. The Isreal Defence Force (IDF) is now active, day to day, on three fronts: Gaza, West Bank, and Lebanon.
Israel’s long and ruthless bombardment of the people of Gaza has dramatically increased in ‘scope, depth, and intensity’, to borrow the words of the UN Secretary-General. With Iran now drawn into the conflict, we are closer of another Middle East war than at any time in the past year.
The latest, and most dangerous phase of Israel’s military operations began on 17-18 September when security forces targeted Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut with exploding phones and pagers. In the two weeks since, Israel Defence Force incursions into Lebanon have expanded into the south of the country.
As in Gaza, so the casualty toll in Lebanon is rapidly rising. Hundreds were reported killed and several thousand injured by the end of the first week of these Israeli attacks. Over 1,000 were dead by the end of the month, and the figure continues to rise. More than 100,000 are now reported to have fled Lebanon for Syria.
Israel’s expanding operations
In the period since 16 September, the IDF has also carried out attacks on other Middle East locations and launched airstrikes on Houthi bases in Yemen. The latter have targeted power stations and an oil pipeline in and around the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa in Yemen. These ports are located on the Red Sea, over a thousand miles from Israel’s borders.
Reports of the air attack on Beirut on 28 September that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, included claims of Israel’s use of bunker buster munitions in built-up civilian areas which is illegal under international law.
Confirmation of Nasrallah’s death came on 30 September and drew a reluctant Iran into the conflict. On 1 October, Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at targets across Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu responded: ‘Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.’
Iran’s engagement amplified international concerns that Israel is now pushing forward to a wider war by expanding its area of operations and increasing the scope of its targets. Security specialists and senior military figures believe future operations could include strikes against Iranian economic, military, and nuclear facilities, carrying the possibility of an all-out war. Potential targets include Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, its oil and gas fields, as well as military targets such as Iranian air defence systems.
Nuclear dangers
Targeting nuclear facilities not only carries the threat of even greater humanitarian danger from nuclear contamination, which could spread across the country depending on weather conditions. An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could reinforce the argument of some of the more hawkish figures in the administration, that the country’s conventional defences are insufficient against an Israeli-led war supported by NATO allies, and Iran needs to develop nuclear weapons.
The knowledge of how to do so already exists within the Iranian scientific and engineering community. An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could precipitate a decision to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and lead to a nuclear-armed Iran in future.
Entrenched attitudes
Concerns about a wider war in the Middle East were reflected in an emergency session of the UN Security Council on 2 October. The exchanges of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah are repeated violations of UNSC Resolution 1701. Adopted unanimously in 2006, this resolution created a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon in an attempt to maintain a permanent ceasefire after their war of that same year. Despite violations on both sides, the buffer zone has held until now.
The Israeli Ambassador’s statement at the UN SC emergency session left little room for doubt about his country’s intentions. In what amounted to a declaration of intent, ‘the time for empty calls for de-escalation is over,’ he said. ‘The world must understand Israel will defend itself. It will do so with justice and strength.’
Responding, the Iranian Ambassador said the missile attack of 1 October was ‘a just and proportionate’ action. Reiterating Iran’s preference of avoiding war, he ‘strongly warned against any further act of aggression’. Iran was prepared to take defensive measures to protect its ‘territorial integrity and sovereignty against further acts of aggression’.
In recent weeks, Iran has made clear its willingness to renew its nuclear deal with the US. As recently as a week before the UN SC emergency meeting, for example, Iran called for a renewal of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear agreement negotiated by the Obama administration and agreed between Iran and the five permanent members of the UNSC in 2015, which the Trump administration withdrew from in 2018.
If Israeli attacks escalate, the defensive measures the Iranian Ambassador suggests Iran would be prepared to take could include, for example, withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As part of the JCPOA, weapons inspections took place and confirmed Iran did not have nuclear warheads, though experts estimated it would be able to develop a bomb in the medium term. Since the Trump administration torpedoed the nuclear agreement, Iran is thought to be closer to developing nuclear warheads.
Britain’s response
The US and Britain are standing back as anxieties about Israel targeting Iranian economic, military, and nuclear facilities grow. Following Iran’s air attack, Foreign Secretary David Lammy repeated his call for an immediate ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, condemned Iran’s attack on Israel, and reiterated his support for Israel’s right ‘to defend itself’.
President Biden has made known his opposition to Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and pipelines – the latter made more urgent, no doubt, by the rise in oil prices. However, the US is in the final stages of a presidential election, and Biden is a lame duck president. It is now openly acknowledged by American commentators and media that Biden’s influence on Netanyahu is severely limited.
Prime Minister Starmer told parliament Britain will ‘never’ stop all arms sales to Israel. It was ‘a position that I could not countenance a year after October the 7th’ and ‘in the face of attacks by Iran’. Starmer was responding to an intervention from the SNP: ‘Why does he continue to licence 90% of weapon sales to Israel when there is ample proof that UK weapons are still being used to prolong this catastrophe?’. The PM told parliament the idea he could say he supported Israel’s ‘right to defend herself’ but deprive them of the means to do so ‘will never be my position’. This is dangerous and misjudged at the very time when Israel is threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, and it seriously underestimates the strength of public opinion.
Meanwhile, the US and France are calling for a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon, which Israel has rejected. President Macron had also called for a halt to arms sales to Israel and has floated the possibility of an international conference, saying ‘the priority is that we return to a political solution’. Macron criticised Netanyahu’s decision to begin ground troops operations in Lebanon and called for de-escalation: ‘The Lebanese people must not in turn be sacrificed, Lebanon cannot become another Gaza.’
Britain must not be allowed to stand aside while Israel pushes the Middle East to the edge of war The left should be pressing for a positive response to Iranian calls to reinstate the JCPOA. The movement which took to the streets of Britain against war on Iraq in 2003 and has done so again in support of the Palestinians, must demand of the British government:
No more war in the Middle East!
De-escalation and ceasefire now!
Stop arming Israel!
- Carol Turner is a Vice Chair of the Campaign Nuclear Disarmament (CND) and active in Labour CND.
