“Fossil fuels will now cost the Earth, in more ways than one.”
By Paul Atkin, Greener Jobs Alliance
Fossil fuels will now cost the Earth, in more ways than one.
The immediate human cost of Trump’s war on Iran is appalling. And it has caused a massive energy supply shock. This will get worse the longer the war continues. It has already caused immense damage. The International Energy Agency says that some oil and gas fields in the Gulf will take 6 months to get back up and running, and others will take “much longer” even if the war were to stop tomorrow.
There are three massive consequences of this.
- A sharp drop in oil and LNG supply, leading to the most vulnerable countries turning back to coal and vulnerable communities back to scavenged wood or dung for heat and cooking
- A rise in the price of fossil fuels as a result. In the first month of the war, this has been cushioned by large buffer stocks and the release of strategic reserves, which will largely be depleted by early April. Prolonging the war beyond now will lead to an even sharper price spike. This is immensely profitable for fossil fuel companies – with ‘exporters and traders of American LNG set to accumulate roughly $870 million per week in additional margin above their pre-crisis baseline’ – but makes FF energy even more expensive compared to renewables and is already having a big impact on the cost of living – with the Times predicting average energy bills of £2,500 a year and EDF, which supplies about 2.7m households, saying that one in eight of its customers is already more than 45 days overdue on them, even before the current surge in wholesale prices feeds through.
- A recognition from both states and individuals that a quicker shift to renewable energy is a way to avert such energy supply shocks, because there are no pinch points for wind and sunshine. That can be seen in the UK government bringing forward the next Contracts for Difference auction and the sharp spike in domestic demand for solar panels and EVs since the start of the war.
Running counter to this reality we have shameless campaigns from the FF companies demanding cuts in windfall taxes, even as they make the biggest windfalls for years, and from Reform and the Conservatives to go slower on energy transition and drill for more oil and gas in the North Sea, as if this would be “the answer to the energy crisis” (K Badenoch).
In making these demands, they never quantify what impact they expect it will make. This is because it would have no impact on prices and virtually none on production or saving jobs or reducing imports. This graph from Carbon Brief and their fact check on 9 misleading myths about North Sea oil and gas shows the absurdity of their posture.
The trade union and climate movements should be clear on two things.
Even if the government caves in to US pressure to allow new North Sea licences, this will not stop the haemorrhaging of jobs. Lifting the ban, while damaging, would prove that. So, if it is lifted, everyone will still have to fight together for the jobs guarantees, retraining and redeployment also needed if the ban stays in place.
With the world burning, the arsonists of Reform and the Conservative Party, who would throw extra fossil fuels onto the flames, and were initially gung-ho to join in the war that is forcing bills up, should not be allowed anywhere near any source of power; so we should be mobilising through our movement to oppose any vote for them on 7 May.
- Paul Atkin is the editor of the GJA, you can follow them on Facebook and Twitter/X.
- This article was originally published in the Greener Jobs Alliance (GJA) April 2026 Newsletter.
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