“Opinion polls had in fact been predicting this for months, but few dared to believe it. Incessant and vitriolic hostile propaganda from the right created a tense atmosphere.”
By David Raby
On Sunday 2 June Mexico held general elections, for President, both Houses of Congress, eight State Governorships plus the Head of Government (Metro Mayor) of Mexico City, and hundreds of local positions.
The result was a stunning victory for the left: Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of the governing Morena (Movement of National Regeneration) Party, won with 60% against 29% for her main right-wing opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez; Morena and its two allied parties won six of the eight governorships and the all-important Metro Mayor position; and while detailed results remain to be confirmed, Morena and its allies won between 84 and 88 out of 128 Senate seats and between 370 and 380 out of 500 seats in the Lower House of Congress.
The significance of the Senate and House figures is that in order to enact Constitutional amendments it is necessary to have a two-thirds majority in both Houses of Congress, and this is key for AMLO’s (and Claudia’s) plans to reform the extremely corrupt judicial system, among other things. The figures are in the range of the two-thirds majorities.
Opinion polls had in fact been predicting this for months, but few dared to believe it. Incessant and vitriolic hostile propaganda from the right created a tense atmosphere although it failed completely to win over Mexican voters, in fact it had a boomerang effect and provoked more people to support Claudia and Morena.
The real target of right-wing propaganda (most of it patently false) was international opinion, above all Western governments, politicians and business interests. Millions of social media memes like #NarcoPresidente were followed up by a cascade of negative media articles in the NY Times, Washington Post, Financial Times and other mainstream outlets.
What AMLO (outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador) and Morena had achieved over the past five and a half years of his six-year term has no parallel in Latin America. Honesty and modesty in government, a serious attack on corruption which he denounced as the root of Mexico’s problems, creation for the first time of a true welfare state, protection of Mexican sovereignty while maintaining cordial relations with the US: all of this was accompanied by constant communication and dialogue with the people.
Also he achieved economic growth and financial stability, financing programmes by reinforcing tax collection without raising tax rates and without borrowing. His bold progressive foreign policy favouring Latin American unity, saving Evo Morales’ life in 2019 and actively condemning the blockade of Cuba, leaves no doubt as to where he stands.
Despite his enormous popularity AMLO always insisted that he would not seek re-election, and this had the effect of forcing Morena to organise more effectively as a mass party and to address the question of the succession. Claudia Sheinbaum emerged during the past year through a process of internal party debate and consultation; she had been a comrade of AMLO in popular and political struggles for some 25 years, with an impeccable leftist record as well as scientific training in environmental sciences, and a firm identification with socialist feminism. She had an excellent record as Metro Mayor of the capital for five years.
The rise of the extreme right in recent years in Latin America (indeed the world) inevitably aroused doubt and fear about Mexico’s prospects. But having followed the process closely I was confident that AMLO and his “4T” (Fourth Transformation) process had immunised Mexico against the far right. After arriving on May 28 for this latest visit, my optimism was confirmed.
Small and medium business owners typically favoured the conservative PAN (National Action Party, a key actor in the opposition coalition), but not always: a restaurant owner wanted welfare policies for the good of all to continue. Also a self-employed beautician was absolutely committed to AMLO, Claudia and the Transformation.
On Sunday long queues formed at polling stations across the country, and people I interviewed in a working-class neighbourhood of the capital were almost unanimously in favour of Claudia and the Transformation. It was clear the the turnout would be high, confirming the virtual certainty of a decisive victory for Morena and its allies.
When the polls closed Xóchitl and her team immediately claimed to have won, an absurd claim since the count had barely begun and exit polls suggested a two-to-one majority for Claudia. The worrying element of this was that Xóchitl hinted they would contest the results in the courts.
But by 11pm the official “quick count” confirmed a big lead for Claudia and Morena, and around midnight Xóchitl did a U-turn and admitted defeat. Messages of congratulations were already pouring in to Claudia Sheinbaum from Heads of State and progressive leaders around the world, and a huge enthusiastic victory celebration took place in the central Zócalo.
Victory also for Clara Brugada, a progressive community leader who had previously been Mayor of the huge working-class Iztapalapa borough, was very positive: she won with about 51 to 40% over a notorious corrupt opponent, Santiago Taboada. Women’s rights, above all for indigenous, working and peasant women, are high on Claudia’s list of priorities.
Claudia had no hesitation in reaffirming her identification with AMLO’s principles and legacy, and when media critics suggest she is just his puppet, she dismisses them with scorn. Of course she wants to continue his programme “For the good of all, but first, the poor”; she believes like him in the primacy of the public good over private profit and in Mexican sovereignty. But she is her own person with her own goals, and on Sunday night in her victory speech, her self-confidence was clearer than ever.
Mexico’s triumph brings hope to Latin America and the world, and needs to be celebrated as an example for the demoralised left in the UK and Europe.
- David L Raby is a retired Professor of Latin American Studies (Toronto and Liverpool), Coordinator of the Mexico Solidarity Forum and author of “Democracy and Revolution: Latin America and Socialism Today” (London, 2006: Pluto).
- You can follow David Raby on Twitter/X and find out more about the campaign of the Mexico Solidarity Forum here.
- If you support Labour Outlook’s work amplifying the voices of left movements and struggles here and internationally, please consider becoming a supporter on Patreon.
One thought on “A massive triumph for the Left in Mexico”